Progress 8 and Attainment 8

In the government response to the secondary school accountability consultation, the DfE committed to looking at further aspects of the Progress 8 measure in more detail before finalising the method of calculating this measure.

The government plan to finalise and publish the method they will use in February. However, they would like to provide an update on three topics at this stage:

Setting predictions for the Progress 8 Value Added measure using data from an earlier cohort

In the response to the consultation the Department said: ‘At present, the value added method compares pupils with the same prior attainment within the same cohort. This means the grades required for each pupil to achieve a positive progress score are worked out after exams have been taken. Instead, the expectations could be set using the results of pupils who completed Key Stage 4 three years previously. Pupils and schools would then know in advance what grades they need to achieve a positive progress score, helping them to set suitably challenging targets. In addition, this approach would recognise an improving system; more than half of pupils could achieve positive progress scores if GCSE results had improved over the previous three years. The government intends to discuss this with experts before finalising whether to adopt this approach in 2016, or wait until 2019.’

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